SAG Award Nomination Predictions 2022: Our Picks in Film and TV


The Screen Actors Guild Awards occupy a unique place in the awards season calendar. Held months after the Emmys, they honor shows that might have already raked in statues from the Television Academy—this year we expect those to be Mare of Easttown and *Ted Lasso—*as well as newcomers that might. have premiered after Emmy eligibility, like this year’s Only Murders in the Building or Squid Game. Meanwhile, on the film side, their calendar is perfectly in sync with the Oscars, meaning we should expect a big day for overall awards season hopefuls like The Power of the Dog, King Richard, and more.

But the SAG Awards are their own thing, separate from any other awards body, and their outstanding-ensemble award is a unique opportunity to celebrate shows and movies that aren’t just good, but fueled by the performances working together in unison. Below, find our predictions for the projects we think captured that power—or, at least the ones we think will be right up SAG’s alley. The 2022 SAG Award nominations will be announced Wednesday, January 12.

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE

Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
The Power of the Dog

Last season was a rare exception, but typically, the majority of this category’s nominees go on to best-picture Oscar nominations—and that seems particularly likely this go-round, with the Academy’s lineup expanding to a full 10. So which candidates are most likely to pop with the actors? Start with Don’t Look Up, an A-list-led and widely popular—arguably SAG’s two biggest criteria—Netflix film that peaked in interest level at the height of voting. West Side Story, Belfast, and The Power of the Dog have less outrageously famous ensembles, but each film is loaded with individual acting possibilities, and the fact that they’re collectively the top Oscar front-runners right now indicates they either get nominated here and maintain momentum, or get snubbed and lose some steam. Then you’ve got other starry contenders like Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza, while SAG also loves a feel-good family ensemble, which bodes well for both the groundbreaking CODA and the biopic King Richard. Finally, don’t count out a non-best-picture player either, like The Harder They Fall—with one of the year’s best casts having the time of their lives, fans of the Netflix Western are sure to throw it some votes. —David Canfield

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick…Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard

Smith and Cumberbatch have been leading the conversation for this category since the fall festivals, and feel like easy locks at this point for their performances in King Richard and The Power of the Dog, respectively. Game of Thrones star Dinklage is very well respected in the acting community and delivers a memorable performance in the musical Cyrano, which is based on a stage version he also starred in, so he also seems very likely to make the list. And speaking of musicals, Garfield delivers a tour de force performance as Rent creator Jonathan Larson in the musical Tick, Tick…Boom! and should also land a spot. That leaves one slot for either The Tragedy of Macbeth’s Denzel Washington or Don’t Look Up’s DiCaprio. Despite plenty of criticism around the Adam McKay movie, there is no denying it’s the one contender that everyone has been talking about for the past few weeks. What makes this race even more interesting is that DiCaprio and Washington are currently tied for the most nominations ever in this category, with five each. But DiCaprio already holds the title of most nominated male performer on the film side (with six), and so we are tipping the odds in his favor for this one. —Rebecca Ford

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Emilia Jones, CODA
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Despite a wealth of performances to choose from, the buzz in this category has largely solidified around four contenders: recent best-actress Oscar winner and Emmy winner Colman, who has earned yet more raves for her tightrope-walk work in The Lost Daughter; Gaga, who shines throughout the uneven House of Gucci; Kidman, who silenced naysayers with her spirited portrayal of Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos; and early category front-runner Stewart, who is earning long-overdue awards attention for playing Princess Diana in Spencer. That leaves a fifth wild card slot, which could easily go to Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), or Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). But we’re placing a big bet on Jones, who carries the winning ensemble of CODA in the kind of star-making performance awards bodies often love to recognize. Whether or not she makes it onto this list of five, we expect she has big things ahead. —Katey Rich

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog



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